Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 15?
market:
Yes 31¢ / No 69¢
· liquidity $22,000 · ends 2026-10-01
·
market page ↗Turns on whether statements describing 'restoration work underway' or present-progressive status count as announcing the pipeline 'is operational'.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
On September 11, 2026, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy announced that the East-West oil pipeline has been shut down.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Saudi Arabia announces that the East-West oil pipeline is operational or no longer shut down between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must express that the pipeline is presently operating; operation at partial or reduced capacity qualifies.
Announcements that attribute such a claim to third parties, state that the pipeline will or may operate in the future, describe work underway to restore operation, or frame resumption as expected, planned, or conditional, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent contradictory statements, or alternative information from other sources.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia.
Rules exclude future-tense and work-in-progress statements, but boundary between 'being restored' and 'is operational' can be linguistically ambiguous.
Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-restarts-by-september-15.json.
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