Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?
market:
n/a
· liquidity $13,968 · ends 2026-09-06
·
market page ↗Turns on whether CDU running under a new name without formal party merger counts toward the 23% threshold.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Rule assumes CDU either runs as CDU, formally merges into a successor, or doesn't contest—unclear how to attribute votes if CDU rebrands without a formal legal merger.
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market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
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Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-cdu-over-under-23-percent.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.