Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
market:
Yes 7¢ / No 93¢
· liquidity $52,472 · ends 2026-12-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether informal ceasefire/political statements count or require formal diplomatic instruments for each of the three conditions.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
Terms 'ceasefire,' 'agrees not to join NATO,' and 'peace deal' lack technical definitions; external PDF suggests omitted detail; conditions appear redundant.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $24,324 · SELL No $6,543 · BUY Yes $420. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$1,872 @ 95¢
2026-08-23 · 0xa9f3f91c… · wallet history: $31,325 redeemed / 11 resolutions BUY No
$1,814 @ 94¢
2026-08-23 · 0xa9f3f91c… · wallet history: $31,325 redeemed / 11 resolutions SELL No
$1,001 @ 91¢
2026-08-18 · 0x5ca7a775… · wallet history: $34,394 redeemed / 27 resolutions BUY No
$1,001 @ 91¢
2026-08-10 · 0xef58eee0… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions BUY No
$995 @ 88¢
2026-07-04 · 0xbdf482c9… · wallet history: $345 redeemed / 9 resolutions BUY No
$839 @ 88¢
2026-07-12 · 0xa9f3f91c… · wallet history: $31,325 redeemed / 11 resolutions BUY No
$819 @ 90¢
2026-08-06 · 0xefb92604… · wallet history: $600 redeemed / 1 resolutions BUY No
$748 @ 85¢
2026-06-27 · 0xa9f3f91c… · wallet history: $31,325 redeemed / 11 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/russia-x-ukraine-peace-parlay.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.