Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
market:
Yes 17¢ / No 83¢
· liquidity $84,145 · ends 2026-12-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether 'ceases to be President for any period of time' includes temporary absence or requires permanent removal.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Opening clause says 'any period' but later clause requires 'permanently prevented'—contradiction between scope and permanence
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $133,447 · SELL No $15,484 · BUY Yes $7,700 · SELL Yes $1,151. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$48,900 @ 90¢
2026-08-08 · 0xe258c02a… · wallet history: $3,010 redeemed / 4 resolutions BUY No
$15,000 @ 83¢
2026-07-19 · 0x07a9bf6d… · wallet history: $390,546 redeemed / 125 resolutions BUY No
$10,500 @ 85¢
2026-07-21 · 0x7878ddeb… · wallet history: $22,443 redeemed / 3 resolutions BUY No
$10,000 @ 84¢
2026-07-20 · 0xcc033f89… · wallet history: $35,873 redeemed / 3 resolutions BUY No
$7,776 @ 84¢
2026-08-02 · 0x149621a0… · wallet history: $11,209 redeemed / 11 resolutions BUY No
$6,400 @ 85¢
2026-08-03 · 0x149621a0… · wallet history: $11,209 redeemed / 11 resolutions SELL No
$5,220 @ 87¢
2026-08-09 · 0xcc033f89… · wallet history: $35,873 redeemed / 3 resolutions BUY No
$4,842 @ 86¢
2026-08-05 · 0x149621a0… · wallet history: $11,209 redeemed / 11 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Iran leadership change by March 13?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-june-30-2027.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.