Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
market:
Yes 27¢ / No 73¢
· liquidity $38,080 · ends 2026-12-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether a media report of an announced resignation counts as an announcement under the rules, or if official confirmation is required.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The term 'announcement' is undefined—unclear whether third-party reports of resignation (vs. direct statement from Hegseth/government) trigger immediate Yes resolution.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $22,216 · BUY Yes $13,431 · SELL Yes $7,136 · SELL No $6,348. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$2,748 @ 80¢
2026-08-22 · 0x6bab66c4… · wallet history: $3,114 redeemed / 2 resolutions SELL Yes
$2,416 @ 18¢
2026-08-19 · 0x8633c1c6… · wallet history: $4,240 redeemed / 26 resolutions BUY No
$1,589 @ 79¢
2026-08-18 · 0x7c3db723… · wallet history: $48,850 redeemed / 8 resolutions BUY Yes
$1,500 @ 30¢
2026-06-17 · 0x8633c1c6… · wallet history: $4,240 redeemed / 26 resolutions BUY No
$1,500 @ 78¢
2026-07-16 · 0x40a67cff… · wallet history: $54,936 redeemed / 16 resolutions BUY No
$1,500 @ 75¢
2026-06-30 · 0xea66e663… · wallet history: $11,528 redeemed / 7 resolutions BUY Yes
$1,494 @ 30¢
2026-06-17 · 0x8633c1c6… · wallet history: $4,240 redeemed / 26 resolutions BUY No
$1,400 @ 71¢
2026-06-18 · 0xb4fc3b8d… · wallet history: $46,849 redeemed / 25 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
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Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.