OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
market:
Yes 33¢ / No 67¢
· liquidity $15,343 · ends 2026-12-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether an OpenAI announcement counts as declaring AGI achievement when the term 'AGI' is undefined and OpenAI's statement may be ambiguous (e.g., 'major progress on AGI' vs. explicit 'we have achieved AGI').
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The rules hinge on OpenAI's/credible reporting's interpretation of an announcement. AGI lack a universal definition; threshold for what counts as 'announcing achievement' vs. 'announcing progress' is unspecified.
Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by March 13?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/openai-announces-it-has-achieved-agi-before-2027.json.
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