Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
market:
Yes 86¢ / No 14¢
· liquidity $50,696 · ends 2026-12-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether military action short of full-scale invasion counts as 'invades' for China-Taiwan and Russia-NATO conditions.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
Multiple criteria undefined: 'invades', 'out' (Trump/Xi), 'regime falls', 'acquires', Bitcoin source/exchange unspecified. Invasion terminology most likely to fuel disputes over threshold.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY Yes $34,714 · SELL Yes $18,679 · SELL No $5,783 · BUY No $2,299. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
SELL Yes
$6,966 @ 70¢
2026-05-25 · 0x162f6fff… · wallet history: $34,537 redeemed / 8 resolutions SELL Yes
$3,967 @ 52¢
2026-05-16 · 0x62e8a3fe… · wallet history: $10,391 redeemed / 41 resolutions SELL No
$2,316 @ 36¢
2026-05-03 · 0xe5713580… · wallet history: $6,667 redeemed / 5 resolutions BUY Yes
$2,034 @ 68¢
2026-05-06 · 0xbaa2bcb5… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions BUY Yes
$2,000 @ 83¢
2026-08-19 · 0x5685bf67… · wallet history: $76,065 redeemed / 17 resolutions BUY Yes
$1,911 @ 60¢
2026-05-04 · 0xbaa2bcb5… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions BUY Yes
$1,870 @ 82¢
2026-08-16 · 0xeb490d05… · wallet history: $169,343 redeemed / 8 resolutions BUY Yes
$1,845 @ 74¢
2026-06-13 · 0x0f2bcf46… · wallet history: $10,000 redeemed / 6 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/nothing-ever-happens-2026.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.