Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
market:
Yes 6¢ / No 94¢
· liquidity $6,538 · ends 2026-12-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether gas flows lasting days qualify as 'sustained, measurable flows' or count as test/symbolic transfers lacking commercial intent.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rule defines commercial quantities as 'sustained, measurable flows intended for end-user distribution' but lacks specific thresholds for duration, volume, or minimum flow rate.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $21,312 · SELL No $5,095. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$562 @ 92¢
2026-06-09 · 0x8b71010f… · wallet history: $161,721 redeemed / 16 resolutions BUY No
$516 @ 93¢
2026-06-09 · 0x8b71010f… · wallet history: $161,721 redeemed / 16 resolutions BUY No
$482 @ 91¢
2026-06-09 · 0x1126f8dc… · wallet history: $513 redeemed / 1 resolutions BUY No
$475 @ 92¢
2026-06-09 · 0x6eec7c91… · wallet history: $498 redeemed / 1 resolutions BUY No
$469 @ 91¢
2026-06-09 · 0x1fe3023f… · wallet history: $490 redeemed / 1 resolutions BUY No
$468 @ 91¢
2026-06-09 · 0x37d36ba9… · wallet history: $494 redeemed / 1 resolutions BUY No
$467 @ 92¢
2026-06-09 · 0x74ad0033… · wallet history: $486 redeemed / 1 resolutions BUY No
$467 @ 92¢
2026-06-09 · 0x2c18b4fb… · wallet history: $1,569 redeemed / 5 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by March 13?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/nord-stream-pipeline-turned-on-before-2027.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.