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Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?

market: Yes 94¢ / No 6¢ · liquidity $21,386 · ends 2026-09-30 · market page ↗
Turns on whether variant Mythos names (e.g. 'Mythos-Inspired') count as the qualifying 'Mythos-class' model under the 'or similar' clause.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

'Or similar' phrasing undefined; 'labeling error' vs. legitimate variant ambiguous.

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY Yes $4,700 · SELL Yes $3,257 · BUY No $2,735. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY No $1,099 @ 22¢ 2026-08-20 · 0x7fd3fe65… · wallet history: $2,570 redeemed / 3 resolutions
BUY Yes $1,028 @ 79¢ 2026-08-16 · 0x8633914f… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No $998 @ 20¢ 2026-07-11 · 0x7fd3fe65… · wallet history: $2,570 redeemed / 3 resolutions
SELL Yes $916 @ 77¢ 2026-07-23 · 0x876bb030… · wallet history: $2,853 redeemed / 32 resolutions
SELL Yes $792 @ 84¢ 2026-07-12 · 0x876bb030… · wallet history: $2,853 redeemed / 32 resolutions
BUY Yes $718 @ 81¢ 2026-08-19 · 0x8633914f… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No $638 @ 30¢ 2026-08-07 · 0x876bb030… · wallet history: $2,853 redeemed / 32 resolutions
BUY Yes $568 @ 73¢ 2026-08-01 · 0x876bb030… · wallet history: $2,853 redeemed / 32 resolutions

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will the US not strike another country before 2027? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/next-mythos-class-model-released-by-september-30-2026-695.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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