New pandemic in 2026?
market:
Yes 6¢ / No 94¢
· liquidity $33,065 · ends 2027-01-01
·
market page ↗Turns on whether WHO must explicitly use the word 'pandemic' in an official statement or whether declaring pandemic-level severity suffices.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Historical precedent (COVID-19) shows ambiguity around when/whether WHO formally 'declares' vs. uses pandemic terminology; exact wording of WHO statement matters.
Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Over $2M committed to the Infinex public sale?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/new-pandemic-in-2026.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.