Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?
market:
Yes 5¢ / No 95¢
· liquidity $98,944 · ends 2026-10-01
·
market page ↗Turns on whether a 'consensus of credible reporting' exists for the authenticity of the image/video.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
Threshold for consensus undefined (50% agreement? 75%? 90%? unanimity?). Also 'credible reporting' and 'authentic' are subjective—who determines which outlets count and by what standard deepfakes are ruled out.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $43,464 · SELL No $16,314 · BUY Yes $10,607 · SELL Yes $2,450. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$5,120 @ 88¢
2026-08-14 · 0xdf17f4a8… · wallet history: $11,042 redeemed / 2 resolutions BUY No
$4,000 @ 84¢
2026-08-10 · 0x50b0de75… · wallet history: $28,190 redeemed / 26 resolutions BUY No
$3,430 @ 90¢
2026-07-18 · 0xe2349595… · wallet history: $27,042 redeemed / 6 resolutions BUY No
$3,000 @ 73¢
2026-07-03 · 0x6fd4e792… · wallet history: $33,124 redeemed / 47 resolutions BUY Yes
$3,000 @ 53¢
2026-08-09 · 0x5abfa414… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions SELL No
$2,781 @ 93¢
2026-08-24 · 0xe2349595… · wallet history: $27,042 redeemed / 6 resolutions BUY No
$2,640 @ 88¢
2026-08-10 · 0xe2349595… · wallet history: $27,042 redeemed / 6 resolutions SELL No
$2,316 @ 55¢
2026-07-12 · 0xc6628e0c… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 5 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
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market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
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Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/mojtaba-khamenei-seen-in-public-by-september-30-944.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.