Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
market:
Yes 17¢ / No 83¢
· liquidity $42,044 · ends 2027-01-01
·
market page ↗Turns on whether an announced resignation counts as Díaz-Canel being 'out' even if the announcement is retracted or doesn't take effect.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rule resolves to Yes on announcement alone 'regardless of when removal goes into effect'—doesn't address retractions or statements that turn out to be false.
Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by March 13?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-december-31-113-682.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.