Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
market:
Yes 10¢ / No 90¢
· liquidity $60,776 · ends 2026-12-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether detention or temporary removal counts as 'ceasing to be President' without requiring permanent loss of office.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lee Jae-myung ceases to be the President of South Korea for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Lee Jae-myung's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lee Jae-myung and the government of South Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rule says cessation 'for any period of time' qualifies, but later requires detention, 'effective removal,' or 'permanent prevention'—unclear whether temporary suspension (not removal) or mere detention while nominally in office counts.
Rules arguments from the market's own traders
Substantive resolution-rules commentary from the market's comment section, joined to each
commenter's on-chain position (skin in the game) at collection time. Position ≠ correctness — read the
arguments, weigh the incentives.
0x1F54d5226003C2c1386151f1Aa0aF11A59B58996-1744032329773 no position 2026-06-21
Lee Jae-myung will definitely be eliminated before the end of 2026.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $42,905 · SELL No $28,265 · BUY Yes $12,864. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
SELL No
$15,509 @ 87¢
2026-08-20 · 0xf3f9dd7b… · wallet history: $7,404 redeemed / 9 resolutions BUY No
$5,600 @ 90¢
2026-06-12 · 0x68dd2eb8… · wallet history: $40,232 redeemed / 6 resolutions BUY No
$4,708 @ 89¢
2026-06-16 · 0xf3f9dd7b… · wallet history: $7,404 redeemed / 9 resolutions BUY No
$4,374 @ 92¢
2026-08-12 · 0x89cf2ba7… · wallet history: $9,424 redeemed / 9 resolutions SELL No
$2,039 @ 90¢
2026-08-18 · 0xce20fb5b… · wallet history: $9,473 redeemed / 82 resolutions BUY No
$2,032 @ 89¢
2026-06-11 · 0xf3f9dd7b… · wallet history: $7,404 redeemed / 9 resolutions BUY No
$2,000 @ 91¢
2026-06-12 · 0x68dd2eb8… · wallet history: $40,232 redeemed / 6 resolutions BUY No
$1,760 @ 91¢
2026-08-04 · 0x3eae5798… · wallet history: $157,793 redeemed / 27 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
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resolved NO
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Iran leadership change by March 13?
resolved NO
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Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.