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Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

market: Yes 8¢ / No 92¢ · liquidity $45,602 · ends 2027-01-01 · market page ↗
Turns on whether house arrest/electronic monitoring counts as arrest/detention in any legal context or only when imposed as a criminal sanction.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The rule lists 'Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring' as qualifying, without specifying criminal context. Could dispute arise if monitoring is imposed for non-criminal reasons (quarantine, medical)?

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will the US not strike another country before 2027? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/lee-jae-myung-arrested-before-2027.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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