Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?
market:
Yes 87¢ / No 13¢
· liquidity $8,669 · ends 2026-09-01
·
market page ↗Turns on whether media reporting that an intention to divorce was announced counts as an announcement, or if a direct public statement from the parties is required.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kristi Noem and/or her spouse announce their intention to divorce by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by the specified date of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.
The resolution source will be statements from Kristi Noem and/or her spouse, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.
Resolution source includes 'credible media reporting,' but rule requires 'announce their intention'—unclear whether third-party confirmation of an announcement suffices.
Rules arguments from the market's own traders
Substantive resolution-rules commentary from the market's comment section, joined to each
commenter's on-chain position (skin in the game) at collection time. Position ≠ correctness — read the
arguments, weigh the incentives.
memetal holds $1 on No 2026-08-31
Mother is family, doesn't count as representative, there is a good dispute case here
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY Yes $1,770 · BUY No $569. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY Yes
$971 @ 90¢
2026-08-31 · 0xf0d5eb1c… · wallet history: $82,355 redeemed / 60 resolutions BUY Yes
$798 @ 81¢
2026-07-10 · 0xaae9b2c5… · wallet history: $24,919 redeemed / 17 resolutions BUY No
$569 @ 93¢
2026-08-29 · 0x836ffd95… · wallet history: $22,252 redeemed / 20 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
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Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/kristi-noem-divorce-by-august-31.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.