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Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?

market: Yes 8¢ / No 92¢ · liquidity $70,577 · ends 2026-12-31 · market page ↗
Turns on what threshold of actual control counts as 'sufficiently established' vs. contested.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Rule excludes temporary raids but requires 'sufficiently established' control—no clear bar for that threshold. Contested/unclear/disputed all trigger No, but the boundary is vague.

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $36,255 · SELL No $10,671 · BUY Yes $1,496. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY No $4,883 @ 91¢ 2026-08-05 · 0xab01674c… · wallet history: $27,760 redeemed / 2 resolutions
BUY No $3,058 @ 91¢ 2026-08-13 · 0xfd076a68… · wallet history: $41,036 redeemed / 23 resolutions
BUY No $2,670 @ 89¢ 2026-08-03 · 0x9d736920… · wallet history: $1,020 redeemed / 3 resolutions
BUY No $2,631 @ 88¢ 2026-08-02 · 0xf9b71663… · wallet history: $11,249 redeemed / 15 resolutions
SELL No $2,238 @ 90¢ 2026-08-08 · 0x7f9e2d1d… · wallet history: $86,147 redeemed / 8 resolutions
BUY No $2,139 @ 86¢ 2026-08-01 · 0x7f9e2d1d… · wallet history: $86,147 redeemed / 8 resolutions
SELL No $2,132 @ 90¢ 2026-08-11 · 0x69ea0d77… · wallet history: $226,490 redeemed / 76 resolutions
BUY No $2,108 @ 89¢ 2026-08-03 · 0x69ea0d77… · wallet history: $226,490 redeemed / 76 resolutions

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-december-31-20260730004337418.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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