Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by September 30?
market:
Yes 17¢ / No 83¢
· liquidity $7,161 · ends 2026-09-30
·
market page ↗Turns on whether covert military operations without uniforms count as 'military personnel entering for military purposes' under the rules.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Nabatieh will count.
Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
The exclusion of 'undercover operatives' is unverifiable without insider knowledge; soldiers in civilian dress blur the line.
Rules arguments from the market's own traders
Substantive resolution-rules commentary from the market's comment section, joined to each
commenter's on-chain position (skin in the game) at collection time. Position ≠ correctness — read the
arguments, weigh the incentives.
TemuOracle no position 2026-06-03
you need to read the article, not only the title
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $53,413 · SELL No $44,272. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$14,278 @ 95¢
2026-08-31 · 0xb4e6c241… · wallet history: $1 redeemed / 1 resolutions SELL No
$11,715 @ 78¢
2026-08-31 · 0xb4e6c241… · wallet history: $1 redeemed / 1 resolutions BUY No
$9,528 @ 95¢
2026-08-31 · 0xb4e6c241… · wallet history: $1 redeemed / 1 resolutions BUY No
$9,528 @ 95¢
2026-08-31 · 0xb4e6c241… · wallet history: $1 redeemed / 1 resolutions BUY No
$9,500 @ 95¢
2026-08-31 · 0xb4e6c241… · wallet history: $1 redeemed / 1 resolutions SELL No
$8,000 @ 80¢
2026-08-31 · 0xb4e6c241… · wallet history: $1 redeemed / 1 resolutions SELL No
$7,924 @ 79¢
2026-08-31 · 0xb4e6c241… · wallet history: $1 redeemed / 1 resolutions SELL No
$7,824 @ 78¢
2026-08-31 · 0xb4e6c241… · wallet history: $1 redeemed / 1 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
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Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/israeli-forces-enter-nabatieh-by-september-30.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.