unrekt resolver / dossier

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 16, 2026?

market: Yes 100¢ / No 0¢ · liquidity $22,261 · ends 2026-09-17 · market page ↗
Turns on where the threshold lies between 'brief greeting/chance encounter' and 'deliberate diplomatic meeting,' and how much mediation disqualifies a meeting as 'between' the parties.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Rules exclude brief greetings but don't specify minimum duration/substance; indirect mediated meetings are included but scope of permissible third-party role is vague.

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

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Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
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Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting-by-september-16-2026.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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