Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
market:
Yes 3¢ / No 97¢
· liquidity $43,340 · ends 2026-09-01
·
market page ↗
Turns on whether one credible news report satisfies the 'consensus of credible reporting' requirement, or whether multiple independent outlets must confirm the meeting.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules require the meeting be 'reported by a consensus of credible media,' but 'consensus' is undefined. Also, what level of explicit authorization (vs. implicit/back-channel) satisfies 'authorized to engage in negotiation on behalf of their governments'?
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $18,891 · SELL No $1,693. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$2,261 @ 91¢
2026-08-22 · 0x8597ca63… · wallet history: $27,041 redeemed / 11 resolutions
BUY No
$954 @ 94¢
2026-08-22 · 0x8597ca63… · wallet history: $27,041 redeemed / 11 resolutions
BUY No
$670 @ 92¢
2026-08-22 · 0x8597ca63… · wallet history: $27,041 redeemed / 11 resolutions
SELL No
$437 @ 91¢
2026-08-13 · 0x8a194860… · wallet history: $205 redeemed / 1 resolutions
BUY No
$437 @ 91¢
2026-08-13 · 0x8a75ef0d… · wallet history: $1,980 redeemed / 5 resolutions
BUY No
$432 @ 92¢
2026-08-13 · 0xcae669ec… · wallet history: $3,357 redeemed / 7 resolutions
BUY No
$432 @ 92¢
2026-08-13 · 0x4da5b66b… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No
$432 @ 92¢
2026-08-13 · 0x8d741707… · wallet history: $5,380 redeemed / 9 resolutions
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Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting-by-august-31-2026-20260810145737300.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.