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Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?

market: Yes 2¢ / No 98¢ · liquidity $30,847 · ends 2026-08-31 · market page ↗
Turns on whether certain peripheral or adjacent areas count as part of 'Greater Beirut' under the incomplete geographic definition.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Greater Beirut by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Greater Beirut. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Greater Beirut do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and credible reporting.

Definition of 'Greater Beirut' cuts off mid-phrase ('coastal and suburban m...'); 'adjacent' lacks precise geographic scope; boundary ambiguity could affect resolution.

Rules arguments from the market's own traders

Substantive resolution-rules commentary from the market's comment section, joined to each commenter's on-chain position (skin in the game) at collection time. Position ≠ correctness — read the arguments, weigh the incentives.

0xEc560bCBe104Ff09F202Ba9Ea93B1c7EEd8a13a7-1769871112821 no position 2026-07-24
Why add dates if no one resolves the ones that passed?
Moly-Parket365 no position 2026-07-09
Please add market next UMA market scam by . . .

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $34,290 · SELL No $5,395 · BUY Yes $1,436 · SELL Yes $495. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY No $4,572 @ 65¢ 2026-07-30 · 0x6bab66c4… · wallet history: $3,114 redeemed / 2 resolutions
BUY No $2,600 @ 52¢ 2026-07-14 · 0x4478d7bd… · wallet history: $3,260 redeemed / 1 resolutions
BUY No $2,184 @ 89¢ 2026-08-12 · 0xeb490d05… · wallet history: $169,343 redeemed / 8 resolutions
BUY No $2,000 @ 90¢ 2026-08-16 · 0x2974bd00… · wallet history: $103,984 redeemed / 18 resolutions
BUY No $1,989 @ 92¢ 2026-08-18 · 0x22e4248b… · wallet history: $414,349 redeemed / 24 resolutions
BUY No $1,608 @ 67¢ 2026-08-02 · 0x162f6fff… · wallet history: $34,537 redeemed / 8 resolutions
SELL No $1,568 @ 85¢ 2026-08-05 · 0xc6628e0c… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 5 resolutions
BUY No $1,544 @ 96¢ 2026-08-25 · 0x2974bd00… · wallet history: $103,984 redeemed / 18 resolutions

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/israel-military-action-against-greater-beirut-by-august-31-20260708214159403.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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