Iran Nuke before 2027?
market:
Yes 4¢ / No 96¢
· liquidity $113,749 · ends 2026-12-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether leaked/leaked intelligence agency reports count as 'officially confirm' without explicit governmental or international agency declaration.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Term 'officially confirm' is ambiguous — unclear whether media reporting of intelligence suffices or if explicit governmental/IAEA statement required.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $34,755 · SELL No $13,992. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$11,466 @ 96¢
2026-08-18 · 0x0224bb9e… · wallet history: $542,014 redeemed / 34 resolutions SELL No
$5,100 @ 95¢
2026-08-20 · 0xa8c63f77… · wallet history: $3,204 redeemed / 2 resolutions SELL No
$2,069 @ 95¢
2026-08-20 · 0xa8c63f77… · wallet history: $3,204 redeemed / 2 resolutions BUY No
$1,900 @ 95¢
2026-08-02 · 0xbb2e5850… · wallet history: $120,877 redeemed / 29 resolutions BUY No
$1,230 @ 95¢
2026-08-10 · 0x77c344e1… · wallet history: $123,232 redeemed / 23 resolutions BUY No
$1,029 @ 95¢
2026-08-02 · 0xa66790e2… · wallet history: $31,544 redeemed / 65 resolutions SELL No
$1,010 @ 94¢
2026-08-01 · 0x6abe7704… · wallet history: $13,576 redeemed / 31 resolutions BUY No
$949 @ 95¢
2026-07-27 · 0xad6092f0… · wallet history: $10,779 redeemed / 21 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/iran-nuke-before-2027.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.