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Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?

market: Yes 12¢ / No 88¢ · liquidity $43,336 · ends 2026-10-01 · market page ↗
Turns on whether reported fee collection practices satisfy the 'mandatory for passage' practical impossibility test and 'consensus of credible reporting' standards.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.

Both require interpretation: 'mandatory in practice' is subjective despite the practical-test definition, and 'consensus' has no quantitative threshold.

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $23,568 · BUY Yes $1,259. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY No $17,501 @ 84¢ 2026-08-15 · 0x52f518bd… · wallet history: $17,608 redeemed / 4 resolutions
BUY No $1,658 @ 83¢ 2026-08-15 · 0x75322cd7… · wallet history: $13,743 redeemed / 40 resolutions
BUY No $1,448 @ 76¢ 2026-08-19 · 0x879247bf… · wallet history: $14,180 redeemed / 19 resolutions
BUY Yes $1,259 @ 28¢ 2026-08-18 · 0x4478d7bd… · wallet history: $3,260 redeemed / 1 resolutions
BUY No $849 @ 85¢ 2026-08-21 · 0x879247bf… · wallet history: $14,180 redeemed / 19 resolutions
BUY No $766 @ 79¢ 2026-08-20 · 0x879247bf… · wallet history: $14,180 redeemed / 19 resolutions
BUY No $673 @ 75¢ 2026-08-18 · 0x879247bf… · wallet history: $14,180 redeemed / 19 resolutions
BUY No $672 @ 82¢ 2026-08-20 · 0x879247bf… · wallet history: $14,180 redeemed / 19 resolutions

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will the US not strike another country before 2027? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-by-september-30.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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