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Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

market: Yes 22¢ / No 78¢ · liquidity $37,560 · ends 2026-10-31 · market page ↗
Turns on when gradual fee implementation qualifies as 'begins collection' for a mandatory charging policy.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.

Rule requires both announcement and 'consensus of credible reporting that collection has begun,' but does not define what constitutes the start of collection if initial implementation is sporadic; rule text is also truncated ('Fees charged b').

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $29,726 · BUY Yes $22,316 · SELL No $8,620 · SELL Yes $6,045. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY Yes $4,058 @ 67¢ 2026-08-04 · 0xdf17f4a8… · wallet history: $11,042 redeemed / 2 resolutions
BUY Yes $3,405 @ 57¢ 2026-08-04 · 0xbaa2bcb5… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No $2,940 @ 44¢ 2026-08-03 · 0x524db836… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No $2,683 @ 67¢ 2026-08-20 · 0xb4f2592e… · wallet history: $151,596 redeemed / 49 resolutions
BUY No $2,603 @ 49¢ 2026-08-03 · 0x524db836… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
SELL No $2,124 @ 57¢ 2026-08-17 · 0x7c3db723… · wallet history: $48,850 redeemed / 8 resolutions
SELL No $1,890 @ 63¢ 2026-08-14 · 0x879247bf… · wallet history: $14,180 redeemed / 19 resolutions
BUY No $1,810 @ 64¢ 2026-08-05 · 0x879247bf… · wallet history: $14,180 redeemed / 19 resolutions

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-by-october-31.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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