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Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

market: Yes 45¢ / No 55¢ · liquidity $57,391 · ends 2026-12-31 · market page ↗
Turns on whether 'consensus of credible reporting' must recognize fees as mandatory—subjective threshold if sources disagree on effective enforcement vs. avoidance.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.

Requires both announcement AND collection start, plus credible-reporting consensus that fees are mandatory for passage; disagreement among news sources on compliance creates resolution ambiguity.

Rules arguments from the market's own traders

Substantive resolution-rules commentary from the market's comment section, joined to each commenter's on-chain position (skin in the game) at collection time. Position ≠ correctness — read the arguments, weigh the incentives.

alexludoman holds $130 on Yes 2026-07-30
iran will just announce and it'll qualify, doesn't matter what trump thinks, doesn't matter if it works
kohalacoastgabe no position 2026-07-14
Keep buying Yes so the rest of us can buy No, lol. I hate when No, being the only possible outcome, is too expensive. Anyone living on our planet actually thinks Trump will let Iran charge a penny? He will get Congress to declare war--and they will--if Iran asserts tolls on 1/5 of oil. Per rules, Iran needs to physically charge and get paid, not just say they will....
hedgefundfounder no position 2026-07-13
Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify.
hedgefundfounder no position 2026-07-13
They need to start receiving payments for this market to resolve

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $28,914 · BUY Yes $13,620 · SELL Yes $2,055 · SELL No $1,336. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY No $6,073 @ 38¢ 2026-08-04 · 0xbaa2bcb5… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No $3,622 @ 54¢ 2026-08-17 · 0x6bab66c4… · wallet history: $3,114 redeemed / 2 resolutions
BUY No $3,610 @ 54¢ 2026-08-21 · 0x879247bf… · wallet history: $14,180 redeemed / 19 resolutions
BUY Yes $2,033 @ 59¢ 2026-08-05 · 0xcca90a5d… · wallet history: $528 redeemed / 16 resolutions
BUY No $1,875 @ 47¢ 2026-08-04 · 0xbaa2bcb5… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY Yes $1,628 @ 57¢ 2026-08-18 · 0x4478d7bd… · wallet history: $3,260 redeemed / 1 resolutions
BUY Yes $1,627 @ 50¢ 2026-08-06 · 0x5556aa39… · wallet history: $23,335 redeemed / 40 resolutions
SELL Yes $1,237 @ 50¢ 2026-08-10 · 0x5556aa39… · wallet history: $23,335 redeemed / 40 resolutions

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-by-december-31-20260706203029175-553.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

unrekt resolver — independent resolution intelligence for prediction markets. We analyse how markets will resolve (rules, wording, precedent), not what will happen. We hold no positions. Every published read is timestamped and graded by the market's actual resolution. all wording-risk markets