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Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?

market: Yes 0¢ / No 100¢ · liquidity $51,184 · ends 2026-09-01 · market page ↗
Turns on how long another entity must sustain control over the island for it to qualify as 'sufficiently established' rather than 'temporary' by the resolution date.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Rules exclude temporary military actions but don't define the duration threshold for 'sufficiently established.' A garrison established days before August 31 might be disputed as too recent/fragile to count.

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $32,891 · SELL No $5,941. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY No $11,078 @ 100¢ 2026-08-26 · 0x59368957… · wallet history: $1,792,233 redeemed / 19 resolutions
BUY No $1,779 @ 98¢ 2026-08-03 · 0x836ffd95… · wallet history: $22,252 redeemed / 20 resolutions
BUY No $1,000 @ 99¢ 2026-08-09 · 0x07e156cd… · wallet history: $137,298 redeemed / 61 resolutions
BUY No $1,000 @ 99¢ 2026-08-09 · 0x07e156cd… · wallet history: $137,298 redeemed / 61 resolutions
BUY No $600 @ 98¢ 2026-08-01 · 0x07e156cd… · wallet history: $137,298 redeemed / 61 resolutions
SELL No $444 @ 97¢ 2026-08-02 · 0xebc3698a… · wallet history: $2,257 redeemed / 6 resolutions
BUY No $444 @ 95¢ 2026-08-02 · 0x77de5e57… · wallet history: $1,400 redeemed / 3 resolutions
BUY No $444 @ 95¢ 2026-08-02 · 0xff6db7ad… · wallet history: $1,333 redeemed / 3 resolutions

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will the US not strike another country before 2027? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/hengam-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-august-31-20260720014859847.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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