Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
market:
Yes 20¢ / No 80¢
· liquidity $33,100 · ends 2027-01-01
·
market page ↗
Turns on whether activities count as 'officially acknowledged' military/security operations versus non-qualifying 'humanitarian' or 'logistical' support.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
Entering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify.
Egyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border.
Foreign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify.
Qualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Multiple overlapping exclusions and ambiguous boundaries: buffer-zone definition, 'official acknowledgment' by whom, what separates convoy escort (qualifying) from humanitarian logistics (excluded).
Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/foreign-intervention-in-gaza-by-december-31-775.json.
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