Fetterman out by September 30, 2026?
market:
Yes 7¢ / No 93¢
· liquidity $24,199 · ends 2026-12-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether announcing a resignation effective after September 30 counts as Fetterman being 'out by September 30' under the rules.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman ceases to be U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of John Fetterman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Base rule requires cessation before Sept 30; announcement rule resolves 'Yes' if announced before Sept 30 regardless of when it takes effect—creates conflict in interpretation.
Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by March 13?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/fetterman-out-by-september-30-2026.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.