Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
market:
Yes 8¢ / No 92¢
· liquidity $25,589 · ends 2027-01-01
·
market page ↗Turns on whether the rate cut must occur at the emergency meeting itself or can occur at any time after an emergency meeting is convened.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Phrase 'after which' creates ambiguity—does causality require the cut happen AT that meeting, or just sometime later?
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $23,339 · SELL No $8,299 · BUY Yes $1,899 · SELL Yes $484. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$3,028 @ 79¢
2026-02-13 · 0x80a4552c… · wallet history: $300 redeemed / 2 resolutions BUY No
$2,400 @ 80¢
2026-02-16 · 0x3a8aa345… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions BUY No
$1,788 @ 82¢
2026-03-12 · 0xb00bd763… · wallet history: $6,705 redeemed / 25 resolutions BUY No
$1,536 @ 79¢
2025-11-24 · 0x4673ada0… · wallet history: $75,464 redeemed / 83 resolutions BUY No
$1,412 @ 81¢
2026-03-14 · 0x57ab144f… · wallet history: $3,429 redeemed / 19 resolutions SELL No
$1,242 @ 78¢
2025-12-27 · 0x4673ada0… · wallet history: $75,464 redeemed / 83 resolutions BUY Yes
$1,000 @ 23¢
2026-04-03 · 0xf6c39553… · wallet history: $33,223 redeemed / 119 resolutions BUY No
$999 @ 82¢
2026-03-30 · 0x7cc71ad8… · wallet history: $3,441 redeemed / 20 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/fed-emergency-rate-cut-before-2027.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.