Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
market:
Yes 100¢ / No 0¢
· liquidity $25,996 · ends 2026-08-21
·
market page ↗Turns on whether replies that appear on the main feed count toward the post total when the rules state 'Replies will NOT count' but then say 'replies recorded on the main feed will be counted.'
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between August 14, 12:00 PM ET and August 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Contradiction between excluding replies and counting replies that appear on-feed; ambiguous which takes precedence or how Truth Social's feed display algorithm determines countability.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY Yes $651 · SELL Yes $587. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY Yes
$651 @ 81¢
2026-08-18 · 0xfd5c9bbf… · wallet history: $908 redeemed / 8 resolutions SELL Yes
$587 @ 100¢
2026-08-20 · 0xfd5c9bbf… · wallet history: $908 redeemed / 8 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
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market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
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DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-august-14-august-21-200plus.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.