Another Iranian diplomat expelled by August 31, 2026?
market:
Yes 5¢ / No 95¢
· liquidity $11,269 · ends 2026-08-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether an expulsion between August 31 and December 31, 2026 counts as resolving the question 'by August 31'.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Question title specifies 'by August 31, 2026' but rules extend resolution window through December 31, 2026. Date mismatch between question and rules.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $8,753. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$470 @ 96¢
2026-08-22 · 0xd18413e5… · wallet history: $886 redeemed / 2 resolutions BUY No
$460 @ 96¢
2026-08-22 · 0xfd5e239b… · wallet history: $867 redeemed / 2 resolutions BUY No
$454 @ 96¢
2026-08-22 · 0x1882da70… · wallet history: $1,931 redeemed / 4 resolutions BUY No
$454 @ 96¢
2026-08-22 · 0x46275207… · wallet history: $996 redeemed / 2 resolutions BUY No
$449 @ 96¢
2026-08-22 · 0x4553a383… · wallet history: $1,825 redeemed / 4 resolutions BUY No
$447 @ 96¢
2026-08-22 · 0x3f86e615… · wallet history: $837 redeemed / 2 resolutions BUY No
$444 @ 96¢
2026-08-22 · 0x83b042b0… · wallet history: $486 redeemed / 1 resolutions BUY No
$444 @ 96¢
2026-08-22 · 0x7abbf201… · wallet history: $1,796 redeemed / 4 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
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Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/another-iranian-diplomat-expelled-by-august-31-2026.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.