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Andrew Tate released from custody by August 31, 2026?

market: Yes 1¢ / No 99¢ · liquidity $15,452 · ends 2026-09-01 · market page ↗
Turns on whether release with ongoing government monitoring (electronic monitoring, house arrest in another country) counts as 'leaving state custody' or remaining under government control.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andrew Tate is released from government custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Tate is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Tate is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Andrew Tate to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. Extradition or transfer to a different jurisdiction of custody will not qualify as a release from custody. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Rules explicitly allow house arrest but don't address electronic monitoring or releases that maintain state supervision; edge-case interpretation risk.

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $18,781 · BUY Yes $458. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY No $4,503 @ 97¢ 2026-08-05 · 0x3eae5798… · wallet history: $157,793 redeemed / 27 resolutions
BUY No $2,871 @ 96¢ 2026-08-07 · 0x3eae5798… · wallet history: $157,793 redeemed / 27 resolutions
BUY No $2,334 @ 97¢ 2026-08-06 · 0x3eae5798… · wallet history: $157,793 redeemed / 27 resolutions
BUY No $2,304 @ 95¢ 2026-07-30 · 0x3eae5798… · wallet history: $157,793 redeemed / 27 resolutions
BUY No $2,099 @ 96¢ 2026-08-07 · 0x3eae5798… · wallet history: $157,793 redeemed / 27 resolutions
BUY No $952 @ 95¢ 2026-08-18 · 0x3eae5798… · wallet history: $157,793 redeemed / 27 resolutions
BUY No $900 @ 95¢ 2026-08-21 · 0xba38f607… · wallet history: $105 redeemed / 8 resolutions
BUY No $585 @ 98¢ 2026-08-06 · 0x3eae5798… · wallet history: $157,793 redeemed / 27 resolutions

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/andrew-tate-released-from-custody-by-august-31-2026-20260728183326903.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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