AI data center in space by December 31, 2027?
market:
Yes 18¢ / No 82¢
· liquidity $8,277 · ends 2028-01-01
·
market page ↗Turns on what counts as 'substantially equivalent' to the example AI accelerators (H100 GPUs, Google TPUs, or successor chips).
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any orbital data center is successfully launched by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Orbital data center” refers to any spacecraft, satellite, or equivalent technology carrying computing infrastructure that is launched into Earth’s orbit for the purpose of providing data-center, cloud-computing, or artificial intelligence computing services and which includes at least 100 data-center-grade AI accelerators, GPUs, TPUs, or substantially equivalent compute processors, (e.g. NVIDIA H100 GPUs, Google TPUs, or equivalent or successor chips).
“Successfully launched” refers to any launch which successfully places a qualifying orbital data center into Earth’s orbit.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules give examples but allow 'substantially equivalent compute processors' without defining the equivalence threshold. A processor 90% as capable as an H100 but half the cost could be disputed.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $4,702 · SELL No $919 · BUY Yes $648 · SELL Yes $415. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$4,202 @ 77¢
2026-08-24 · 0x5f211a24… · wallet history: $8,269 redeemed / 374 resolutions BUY Yes
$648 @ 19¢
2026-05-25 · 0xa58d4f27… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions BUY No
$500 @ 75¢
2026-07-18 · 0xd388dc16… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 3 resolutions SELL No
$493 @ 74¢
2026-07-18 · 0xd388dc16… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 3 resolutions SELL No
$426 @ 71¢
2026-05-25 · 0xd211865a… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions SELL Yes
$415 @ 27¢
2026-05-25 · 0xa58d4f27… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/ai-data-center-in-space-by-december-31-2027.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.