{
 "market_id": "1284535",
 "slug": "will-the-republican-party-win-the-or-03-house-seat",
 "question": "Will the Republican Party win the OR-03 House seat?",
 "event_slug": "or-03-house-election-winner",
 "event_title": "OR-03 House Election Winner",
 "resolution_text": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).",
 "end_date": "2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z",
 "liquidity": 67244.38425,
 "volume24h": 5267.5,
 "yes_price": 0.037,
 "no_price": 0.963,
 "active": true,
 "closed": false,
 "crux_class": "wording_risk",
 "crux": "Turns on what evidence counts as 'most recently expressed intent to caucus' for an independent candidate with fragmented or dated party preference statements.",
 "crux_note": "Rule assigns independent candidates to major parties based on subjective historical statements; no definition of what qualifies as clear intent or how temporal gaps are handled.",
 "classified_at": "2026-08-27T02:24:19.110Z",
 "our_read": null,
 "our_read_note": null,
 "read_price_at": null,
 "read_published_at": null,
 "resolved_outcome": null,
 "graded": null,
 "last_updated": "2026-08-27T08:23:07.205Z"
}