{
 "market_id": "3591684",
 "slug": "will-openais-astra-model-be-released-between-september-14-and-september-20-2026",
 "question": "Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between September 14 and September 20, 2026?",
 "event_slug": "which-week-will-openai-release-astra",
 "event_title": "Which week will OpenAI release Astra?",
 "resolution_text": "On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases \"Astra\" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Astra\" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nProducts labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
 "end_date": "2026-09-20T23:59:00.000Z",
 "liquidity": 13329.59168,
 "volume24h": 10448.69255,
 "yes_price": 0.0005,
 "no_price": 0.9995,
 "active": true,
 "closed": false,
 "crux_class": "wording_risk",
 "crux": "Turns on whether credible media/analyst consensus that a released model (e.g., GPT-6) is the Astra model counts as valid 'confirmation' without explicit OpenAI labeling.",
 "crux_note": "Rules allow model identity to be confirmed 'by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting'—but 'consensus' is subjective and could dispute whether speculation qualifies. Also, rules text is truncated at 'version names dis...' making full evaluation impossible.",
 "classified_at": "2026-09-04T20:24:02.379Z",
 "our_read": null,
 "our_read_note": null,
 "read_price_at": null,
 "read_published_at": null,
 "resolved_outcome": null,
 "graded": null,
 "last_updated": "2026-09-04T21:23:08.489Z"
}