{
 "market_id": "3422125",
 "slug": "will-claude-opus-4-6-thinking-be-the-best-ai-model-on-august-24-2026-1786098036083",
 "question": "Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?",
 "event_slug": "best-ai-model-on-august-24-1786098036087",
 "event_title": "Best AI model on August 24?",
 "resolution_text": "This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Models\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nNo new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the \"Other\" option.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
 "end_date": "2026-08-24T23:59:00.000Z",
 "liquidity": 1861.36758,
 "volume24h": 5419.096232999999,
 "yes_price": 0.0035,
 "no_price": 0.9965,
 "active": true,
 "closed": false,
 "crux_class": "wording_risk",
 "crux": "Turns on whether a model released after market creation that ranks #1 on arena.ai resolves to 'Other' or to the actual top-ranked model.",
 "crux_note": "Conflict between 'no new models' rule and 'resolve to model that ranks first' rule when a new model ranks #1 on Aug 24.",
 "classified_at": "2026-08-24T01:24:42.868Z",
 "our_read": null,
 "our_read_note": null,
 "read_price_at": null,
 "read_published_at": null,
 "resolved_outcome": null,
 "graded": null,
 "last_updated": "2026-08-24T08:23:07.891Z"
}