{
 "market_id": "1633611",
 "slug": "will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027",
 "question": "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?",
 "event_slug": "will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027",
 "event_title": "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?",
 "resolution_text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
 "end_date": "2027-12-31T00:00:00.000Z",
 "liquidity": 223374.3503,
 "volume24h": 5795.815744,
 "yes_price": 0.115,
 "no_price": 0.885,
 "active": true,
 "closed": false,
 "crux_class": "wording_risk",
 "crux": "Turns on whether military operations that lack explicit intent statements but could plausibly be interpreted as aiming to establish control meet the 'intended to establish control' requirement.",
 "crux_note": "'Offensive intended to establish control' requires inferring intent; ambiguous military actions could be disputed",
 "classified_at": "2026-08-20T00:21:35.872Z",
 "our_read": null,
 "our_read_note": null,
 "read_price_at": null,
 "read_published_at": null,
 "resolved_outcome": null,
 "graded": null,
 "last_updated": "2026-09-01T10:23:07.067Z"
}