{
 "market_id": "4338137",
 "slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-october-31-2027",
 "question": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027?",
 "event_slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by",
 "event_title": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?",
 "resolution_text": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.\n\nA broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.\n\nAny form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.\n\nOnly agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.\n\nIf a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.",
 "end_date": "2027-11-01T03:59:00.000Z",
 "liquidity": 88049.0856,
 "volume24h": 2178.076317,
 "yes_price": 0.65,
 "no_price": 0.35,
 "active": true,
 "closed": false,
 "crux_class": "wording_risk",
 "crux": "Turns on whether a ceasefire suspending only certain categories of military engagement (e.g., airstrikes but not ground combat, or certain regions only) counts as a 'general pause in the conflict.'",
 "crux_note": "Rules explicitly exclude 'restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations' but 'general pause' definition remains undefined for edge cases (e.g., comprehensive air/artillery ban but ground ops allowed).",
 "classified_at": "2026-09-10T02:24:57.920Z",
 "our_read": null,
 "our_read_note": null,
 "read_price_at": null,
 "read_published_at": null,
 "resolved_outcome": null,
 "graded": null,
 "last_updated": "2026-09-10T04:23:07.360Z"
}