{
 "market_id": "3215074",
 "slug": "kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-september-30-20260730004207224",
 "question": "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?",
 "event_slug": "kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31",
 "event_title": "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?",
 "resolution_text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.\n\nTemporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.\n\nAn announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.\n\nIf control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.\n\nIf control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.",
 "end_date": "2026-09-30T23:55:00.000Z",
 "liquidity": 316626.10369,
 "volume24h": 43777.553219999994,
 "yes_price": 0.0155,
 "no_price": 0.9845,
 "active": true,
 "closed": false,
 "crux_class": "wording_risk",
 "crux": "Turns on how much contested or disputed control qualifies as Iran 'no longer exercising primary control' versus the market resolving 'No' because control is 'not sufficiently established.'",
 "crux_note": "'Sufficiently established' and 'primary control' are subjective judgment calls; rules exclude temporary presence but ambiguity remains if control is 51-49 divided.",
 "classified_at": "2026-08-20T00:20:29.895Z",
 "our_read": null,
 "our_read_note": null,
 "read_price_at": null,
 "read_published_at": null,
 "resolved_outcome": null,
 "graded": null,
 "last_updated": "2026-09-01T10:23:07.067Z"
}